Anticipated final cost. The number that matters more than the GMP.
The GMP is what you signed. The anticipated final cost is what you will pay. This module assembles it from the other registers and keeps a stored monthly history so the trend is real.
The anticipated final cost, as it renders in the product. Fictional project. Every chart is inline SVG.
The problem this solves.
The guaranteed maximum price is what you agreed. The anticipated final cost is what you are going to pay. The gap between them opens quietly, one register at a time, and no single document shows it.
Figures are from the fictional project used throughout this site, and are arithmetic rather than an industry claim. Your own numbers are the ones worth knowing, and the calculator below computes them.
The number that matters more than the GMP 23 s, no voice over. Nothing loads from YouTube until you press play.All eleven films
Change Order Exposure
The largest moving part of the final cost is the open change orders. Enter yours by cause and see what they are worth weighted and unweighted.
It runs the same functions as the product, in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere or stored.
How the figure is assembled
Start at the GMP. Add approved owner scope changes. Add owner contingency draws if the fund sits outside the GMP. Add a weighted value for open items, using the weighting the owner chose for unclassified changes. Add booked allowance overruns. Subtract the projected unused contractor contingency and the projected unused owner contingency. The result is the anticipated final cost.
Each step is a row in the table and a bar in the waterfall. Every row traces to a register: the change order register, the contingency ledger, the allowance register and the buyout tracker. Change an entry in any of them and the figure moves.
Snapshots, not recomputation
On the first of each month the product writes a snapshot of the figure and its components. The trend line reads from those snapshots and never recomputes history from current data. That is the only way a trend line can be trusted in a board meeting: the number shown for March is the number that was reported in March.
Flags it raises
Anticipated final cost above the GMP, with the movement since last month. A month to month movement larger than the owner's set threshold. Open items weighted above a share of the remaining owner contingency.
What it is not
The anticipated final cost is not a forecast of the development budget. It is the projected final value of the GMP contract and the owner contingency draws against it. Soft costs and financing are outside it.
Instead of the spreadsheet
Why owners pick this over the spreadsheet: a workbook recomputes history every time it opens, so the trend the board saw in March is not reproducible in June. Stored snapshots are the difference. The number reported for a month never changes after that month closes.
The trend line reads stored monthly snapshots. The number for a past month never changes.
Questions owners ask
How are open items weighted?
The owner chooses the weighting for unclassified change orders, for example 50 percent, the split currently argued on the fictional project. The caption under the waterfall states the weighting in use.
Can I see last month's figure?
Yes, and every month before it. The snapshots are stored, the report prints the movement since the prior snapshot, and the trend line shows the whole history.
Does this replace the contractor's cost report?
No. The contractor's report is the contractor's view. This is the owner's, assembled from the owner's own registers, so the two can be compared.
Next and previous
Previous module: Allowance register. Next module: Shared savings. Or read how the nine fit together.
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